Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Climate Change- Terminated.

   I was stting in a chair in the meeting rooms, working on this very blog, in fact, when something life-changing happened. I was busy typing away, and I noticed a large group of people walking down the hallway. Assuming this was some large delegation, or the crowd from a talk that had just finished. I continued to work, but as the group drew closer I caught snatches of their conversation. It was in English, but they had German accents. Given my interest in the German language, I quickly packed up and followed them. As I pushed my way towards them, I could hear them talking more clearly. I hesitated. I thought I recognized the voice that was speaking, but I couldn't see him. I reached the group, and standing right in the middle, energetically talking to his entourage, was my hero. The savior of Cimmeria, the slayer of The Predator, and the sometimes-hero, sometimes-enemy of future earth: Arnold Schwarzenegger. While he's saved the world many times on the silver screen, the Governator is now doing his best to save the real one. As Governor of California, he did his best to help the climate, proposing the creation of the Climate Action Board, raising emissions standards, and fighting deforestation. Now he is going international, urging world leaders to take immediate action.

   Arnold was moving quickly, and I only managed to wave and say hi before he was whisked into a restricted area, probably to "get to his choppa". My encounter, however brief, reminded me of the true scope of these negotiations, and the massive international effort underway to make sure it's successful. Arnold's visit could not come at a better time, as Negotiations are now in a very tenuous phase. The country negotiators have done their job, and a first draft agreement has been proposed. Now the big guns are stepping in, various Ministers, Secretaries, and other government officials will be fighting tooth and nail over every part of the agreement.

   As it stands, the current draft is not really serviceable. The negotiators who created it made sure to leave many options open, so the draft includes many potential targets, measurements, and binding mechanisms. The goal this week is to amend the agreement to set concrete targets, evaluative measures, and legal requirements. Up until now, there has been a general air of universal cooperation between countries, of common goals and ideas. But now differences are becoming clear; fearing rejection by a republican congress, the US desires a deal that won't include nationally binding sections. Threatened more than ant others by climate change, the Small Island Nations demand a 1.5 degree warming target, one that would require immediate and extreme efforts from the developing world. Others place emphasis on deforestation, and others focus on water use. It is clear that much is at stake, and hopefully a deal will be completed by Thursday (The agreement is translated and it's legal ramifications analyzed on Friday).

    This conference has been too long in the making to result in nothing, an hopefully the negotiating parties will realize that even a sub-optimal deal is better than no deal. And if they don't agree on something, we can say "Hasta la vista" to our hopes of ending climate change.

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